December Update on the Bradenton Real Estate Market

As 2006 draws to a close, I thought it was a good idea to take another look at how our Bradenton real estate market is doing. In short, we have a long way to go before we come to the end of the housing correction that started towards the end of 2005.

The most optimistic report I have seen recently predicts a 4.8% drop in real estate prices for 2007 (Fortune Magazine, see link at the end of this paragraph). That is compared to the 14-15% decline I have seen other reports predicting. Most of the reports point to around the third quarter of 2007 as the time the market will hit bottom and then start leveling out. http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_realestate/2.html

This is not a doom and gloom scenario, merely, one that reflects the adjustment our market is making after being inflated by too many investors purchasing too many properties. There are certain factors that are in our favor, such as good interest rates, good employment rates and other good economic indicators that tend to tell us that this will blow over without too much fanfare.

What does this mean for sellers? If you absolutely must sell your home quickly, you will need to drastically drop your price to get it sold...probably back down to 2004 levels. If you don't have to sell right now, I would suggest holding off for at least another year, until some of the excess homes on the market have cleared. The homes that are selling now are not selling at market value, they are selling well below market value (in other words, only the real bargains are selling).

What does this mean for buyers? If you are ready to buy now, this is a great time as there are plenty of homes to choose from and many motivated sellers who are willing to negotiate a good price. The problem lies in finding those owners who are truly motivated, versus those who would like to sell but "aren't going to just give it away." So, the key is to find a good Realtor who specializes in helping Buyers find the right homes. At a minimum, you will want to find a Realtor who is an Accredited Buyers Representative (ABR).


Here are the final stats for single family homes in Bradenton for the past month:

• 4,244 active listings (this does not include unrepresented sellers and developers)
• 171 homes sold within the last month
• Average sales price was $371,439
• Average sales to list percentage was 95%
• Average days on the market = 83
• Absorption Rate = 24 months (number of months it would take to get rid of excess inventory at the current rate)

Final stats for the condo market in Bradenton for the last month:

• 2,031 active listings
• 52 condos sold in the last 30 days
• Average sales price was $252,463
• Average days on the market = 102 days
• Average sales to list percentage was 90%
• Absorption rate = 39 months

Please keep in mind that the activity during the holiday season tends to decrease. I will do another update towards the end of January which will hopefully see the numbers of listings decrease and the amount of sales increase, giving us a better absorption rate. In a healthy market, the absorption rate will be around 3-5 months.

Wishing you a safe and happy end to the holiday season!